Lawson is Challenging Red Bull's Plans — and Montoya is Helping Him

With barely one practice session under his belt, Liam Lawson entered qualifying at Zandvoort and immediately matched Max Verstappen's pace. He completed his qualifying lap with a nearly negligible gap to his teammate, then finished the Dutch Grand Prix in seventh place, earning six points for Red Bull. This was not what a reserve driver was expected to achieve — especially when he was called up at the last minute to replace Isack Hadjar, who had suffered a wrist injury. The story seemed simple: a reserve driver steps in, scores points, then waits for the incumbent to return. But the reality is far more complex. Red Bull's decision on how long to keep Lawson — or hand the seat back to Hadjar as soon as he's recovered — has become a high-stakes strategic puzzle with direct implications for both the 2026 season and the 2026 driver lineup. Juan Pablo Montoya, former F1 driver and current F1 TV commentator, publicly stated on Weekend Warm-Up that Red Bull should extend Lawson's tenure by a few more weeks. His argument rests on two pillars: first, Hadjar needs time to recover fully rather than return prematurely; second, the next race in Madrid — a brand-new circuit called Madring — will level the experience playing field among all drivers. The interesting twist is that Lawson was never Red Bull's default choice. He sits ninth in the standings with 49 points, while Hadjar — despite only racing part of the season due to injury — has accumulated 68 points in eighth place. That 19-point gap would seemingly be enough to secure Hadjar's seat. But Lawson changed the narrative with his on-track performance. When a reserve driver is promoted to the main team with minimal preparation time, two hypotheses emerge. One: the car is easy enough to drive for rapid driver adaptation. Two: that driver possesses exceptional adaptability. With Lawson, available data suggests both could be true. The Red Bull RB19 he drove at Zandvoort belongs to a generation with a relatively wide setup window, not as sensitive to setup changes as previous generations. Simultaneously, Red Bull possesses one of the best simulator programs in F1 history, allowing drivers to prepare nearly the entire race weekend before stepping into the actual car. However, one race weekend is not enough to conclude. This is where I believe the fan community needs to be cautious about definitive statements. Lawson performed well — very well — at Zandvoort. But a single-race sample is not a trend. Monza this weekend and Madrid on September 11-13 will provide the second and third data points for Red Bull to assess whether this performance is reproducible or merely a one-off under favorable conditions. Montoya has no stake in Red Bull's decision. He is an independent commentator with credibility in the racing world, which gives his advice weight. But this is also the moment to question whether Montoya's public advocacy creates political pressure on Red Bull, giving the team a convenient excuse to keep Lawson without being accused of abandoning Hadjar. Strategic machines don't run on emotions — they run on information. And the current information shows the decision is far from settled. The 2026 points picture further clarifies Red Bull's position. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) leads with 242 points, while Verstappen has only 112 — a 130-point gap showing Mercedes has established clear dominance this season. Red Bull is in a chasing role, and in a championship where every point matters, having a second driver consistently scoring is not a choice — it's a necessity. Hadjar accumulated 68 points this season, but all came from consecutive races under normal conditions. Lawson has only 49 points, but earned them under far more difficult circumstances — last-minute call-up, minimal preparation, pressure to prove himself. The comparison between these two numbers is not simply 68 minus 49 equals 19. It's a contextual analysis: different denominators, unequal samples. Yuki Tsunoda, promoted to Racing Bulls to replace Lawson, also received praise from Montoya for his aggressive driving and error-free performance. This reveals Red Bull is simultaneously evaluating four drivers: Lawson, Hadjar, Tsunoda, and Arvid Lindblad. The 2026 seat market at this team is in its most competitive phase in years. The 2026 technical regulation changes are approaching, and this is a crucial variable that cannot be overlooked. As teams enter an era of major changes in both power units and chassis, having a stable driver lineup becomes a strategic advantage. The driver who secures the Red Bull seat for 2026 will have solid job security; those who miss out may wait years for another opportunity. Red Bull has a ruthless history with its driver program — names like Nyck de Vries or Pierre Gasly were replaced quickly when performance didn't meet expectations. Hadjar's injury could become a convenient excuse for the team to make a change they were already considering. The biggest risk here is not technical or regulatory — it's organizational. Rotating four drivers creates instability that could demotivate drivers, allow rivals to poach talent, and cost constructors' points through inconsistency. Lawson could be a scarce commodity on the market: a driver who can match Verstappen in qualifying with only one practice session. If Red Bull doesn't commit clearly to Lawson for 2026, rival teams like Aston Martin, Audi, or Alpine could move in. This weekend's race at Monza will be a crucial observation point. The qualifying gap to Verstappen and race result will largely determine the trajectory of Lawson's opportunities. If he continues performing close to Verstappen, the internal debate at Red Bull will lean decisively in his favor. If he makes errors or the gap widens significantly, the team will have valid grounds to prioritize Hadjar. Madrid in mid-September will be the true decision point. This is the first race in F1 history at Madring — no one has experience advantage, everyone starts from zero. Montoya's argument that Madrid levels the playing field has merit, but may be overstated: teams with strong simulation programs like Red Bull can prepare drivers more effectively than the rest. Hadjar's experience advantage at an unknown circuit may be smaller than Montoya suggests. My personal view, after years of observing F1 driver decisions: Red Bull should keep Lawson for at least one or two more races before making a final decision. Not because he has proven enough — one race weekend is never enough — but because additional data will help the team make a smarter choice. Don't call it luck; call it the remainder of probability — and give it more time to confirm or reject the hypothesis. Hadjar needs to recover fully. Returning too early with an unhealed wrist injury is risky not just physically but also psychologically. A driver needs both — fitness and confidence — to compete at the highest level. If Red Bull rushes him back due to impatience, the consequences could be far more severe than waiting a few more weeks. Red Bull's strategic machine is operating under dual pressure: competing in the 2026 season where Mercedes leads, while simultaneously preparing for a completely different 2026 era. The decision about the team's second seat — Lawson or Hadjar — is not just about who deserves it more in the present, but about who will accompany Verstappen in a completely new generation of cars. This is a problem only time and additional data can solve. And I, as an observer, will continue tracking every step of its evolution.